According to various climate model simulations examining the effects of climate change, average temperatures in the Carpathian Basin are expected to rise by the end of the century, summers will become increasingly dry, and ground-level ozone concentrations will increase. These findings were presented at a professional conference organized by HungaroMet in Budapest on Tuesday, where experts shared research results from the Multidisciplinary National Laboratory for Climate Change.
Research Results Presented in Budapest
At the press conference, Gábor Gyula Szanka, CEO of HungaroMet, said there is no longer any doubt that the climate has changed, and former “rules of thumb” — such as storms at Lake Balaton arriving from the Bakony Mountains — are no longer reliable.
He added that the project can quantitatively forecast what kind of climate the Carpathian Basin can expect through 2100, helping to support adaptation decisions.
“It is important to understand these processes so we can prepare for and adapt to them,” he said.
Gabriella Szépszó, head of climatology and research-development at HungaroMet, explained that over recent years the laboratory has carried out several developments to support climate research and public education. She emphasized that reliable meteorological baseline data are essential for climate studies, so HungaroMet digitized numerous datasets and produced the necessary climate records.
Using this data, researchers ran multiple climate projections through the end of the century and examined the impacts of climate change on cities and air quality.
The klimadat.met.hu website currently provides mainly temperature and precipitation data, but upcoming developments will improve the accuracy of these indicators. A new climate portal is also being created to collect climate-related data and background information, including Hungary’s digital climate atlas. The eghajlat.met.hu website is expected to become publicly available during the first week of June.
Beatrix Izsák from the Climate Research Department highlighted the importance of high-quality measurement series for studying changes over recent decades. To achieve this, raw measurement data undergo homogenization to eliminate inconsistencies caused by various disruptions in the data.
Rising Temperatures and Drier Summers
Sára Bordi from the climate modeling group stated that all models agree average temperatures in Hungary will increase by the end of the century. The more pessimistic scenarios project warming of up to 3°C.
The models also indicate an increased chance of precipitation overall, but mostly during winter, while summers are expected to become increasingly dry.
Lilla Duics-Korosecz discussed studies focusing on Budapest and Szeged as urban heat islands. Average temperatures are projected to rise by 1.7–3.9°C in Budapest and 1.6–3.5°C in Szeged.
The number of summer days with temperatures exceeding 25°C is also expected to increase significantly. In Szeged, between 2041 and 2070, there could be 90–100 such days annually — roughly ten more than in Budapest.
Researchers also examined whether increasing the reflectivity of roofs and roads could reduce urban heat island intensity. They found that while higher reflectivity did not significantly reduce temperatures at two-meter height, it could lower surface temperatures by as much as 10°C.
Air Quality Impacts
HungaroMet also studied the effects of climate change on air quality, with findings presented by Zita Ferenczi from the Air Quality Modeling and Emissions Department.
According to the models, most pollutants are expected to decrease, largely due to projected reductions in emissions from traditional air pollutants.
Nitrogen dioxide levels are expected to decline, especially in urban areas, mainly because of lower traffic emissions. For airborne particulate matter smaller than 10 microns, improvements are expected in rural areas, while urban concentrations may rise slightly due to industrial activity and residential heating emissions.
However, ozone remains a major challenge. Models indicate that ground-level ozone concentrations will continue to increase, especially in August. Warmer temperatures accelerate the chemical processes that create ozone, while changing weather patterns may also contribute to its accumulation near the surface.
Researchers warned that rising ozone exposure could negatively affect vegetation, particularly trees, and may also reduce crop yields.
