Results of the Q3 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

• Ongoing impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic reflected in the macroeconomic expectations reported in the latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
• HICP inflation expectations revised down for 2021 and 2022, and also for longer term
• Real GDP growth expectations revised towards sharper downturn in 2020 and slightly steeper recovery in subsequent years
• Expectations for peak in unemployment rate pushed back to 2021, but expectations of unemployment rate in the longer term remain unchanged

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.4%, 1.0% and 1.3% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. These results represent downward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points for 2021 and 2022. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this round of the SPF, refer to 2025) edged down to 1.6%, from 1.7% in the previous round (which referred to 2024).

The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged -8.3%, 5.7% and 2.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. These represent revisions from the previous round of -2.8 percentage points for 2020 and +1.4 and +0.7 percentage points for 2021 and 2022. At 1.4%, average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were unchanged.

Average unemployment rate expectations stand at 9.1%, 9.3% and 8.5% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. These represent revisions of -0.3, +0.4 and +0.1 percentage points. Expectations for the unemployment rate in the longer term were unchanged at 7.7%.