The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for June 2025 shows mixed developments in inflation perceptions, income and spending expectations, economic outlook, and views on the housing market and credit access. Below is a summary of the key findings compared to May 2025:
Inflation Expectations
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Perceived inflation over the past 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1%, the lowest since September 2021 and stable for the fifth month in a row.
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Inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, reversing earlier increases seen in March and April.
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Expectations for 3 years and 5 years ahead remained steady at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively.
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Inflation uncertainty remained unchanged.
Inflation trends were consistent across income groups, though lower-income households continued to report slightly higher inflation expectations. Younger respondents (aged 18–34) perceived and expected lower inflation than older respondents.
Income and Consumption
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Nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months held steady at 1.0%. However, higher-income groups reported lower expectations, while lower-income groups were more optimistic.
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Spending over the past year was perceived to have increased by 5.0%, unchanged from May.
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Expected spending growth for the next 12 months declined to 3.2%, from 3.5% in May and 3.7% in April, reflecting increased economic uncertainty and lower inflation expectations.
Economic Growth and Labour Market
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Economic growth expectations became less pessimistic, rising to -1.0% from -1.1% in May and -1.9% in April.
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The expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased slightly to 10.3%, compared to 10.4% in May.
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Consumers continue to expect a relatively stable labour market, with future unemployment rates seen as only slightly higher than the perceived current rate of 9.8%.
Housing Market and Credit Access
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Expected home price growth over the next 12 months dipped slightly to 3.1%, from 3.2% in May.
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Expected mortgage interest rates for 12 months ahead declined to 4.3% from 4.4%.
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Lower-income households expected rates of 4.9%, while higher-income groups anticipated 3.9%.
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A slightly higher net percentage of households reported tighter access to credit over the past year, while expectations of tighter credit conditions for the future decreased slightly.
