New data published by the ECB indicate that negotiated wage growth in the euro area is set to slow and gradually normalise in 2026, following elevated pressures in recent years. According to the ECB wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, wage growth including smoothed one-off payments is estimated at 3.2% in 2025 and is expected to fall to 2.3% in 2026, while measures excluding one-off payments also point to more moderate underlying wage dynamics.
Forward-looking information suggests that wage pressures will become more stable and less volatile next year, with less divergence across euro area countries than in previous periods. The ECB stressed that the wage tracker is not a forecast and may be revised, but the data are consistent with the broader Eurosystem projections, which show a deceleration in compensation per employee growth in 2026.
