Poor weather conditions along the main migratory routes into the European Union were among the key factors behind a continued sharp decline in irregular border crossings. In the first three months of 2026, detections fell by 39% compared with the same period last year, with just over 21,400 crossings recorded, according to preliminary data from Frontex.
Key highlights:
- The Eastern Mediterranean remained the busiest route, accounting for around one-third of all irregular entries into the EU.
- The Western African route saw the steepest decline, with detections down 83% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.
- The Western Mediterranean was the only major route to record an increase.
While irregular arrivals continue to decline, the human cost is rising. According to the International Organization for Migration, nearly 1,000 people have died in the Mediterranean so far this year, many in poor weather conditions. Criminal smuggling networks continue to exploit vulnerable people, sending them out on unsafe boats despite the risks, driven by profit.
Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East could increase displacement pressures in the coming months, although this has not yet had a noticeable impact at the EU’s external borders. Frontex says it continues to monitor the situation closely.
With more than 3,700 officers deployed at the EU’s external borders, the agency continues to support national authorities in border management and life-saving operations at sea.
Most active routes:
- Eastern Mediterranean: around 6,500 arrivals (down 34% year-on-year)
- Central Mediterranean: around 6,200 crossings (down 33%)
- Western Mediterranean: around 4,400 crossings (up 66%)
- Channel route to the UK: 6,600 attempts (down 41%)
Note: The figures refer to detections of irregular border crossings at the EU’s external borders; the same person may be recorded multiple times if crossing in different locations.
(FRONTEX)
