The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 2026 shows slightly higher short-term inflation expectations, with headline inflation at 2.7% in 2026 and easing to 2.0% by 2028. Core inflation follows a similar pattern. Long-term inflation expectations (2030) remain stable at 2.0%.
Economic growth expectations were revised down for 2026 (1.0%) and 2027 (1.3%), mainly due to higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, while 2028 and long-term growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.3%.
Unemployment expectations are steady, projected at around 6.3% in 2026, gradually declining to 6.1% by 2028 and staying there long term.
