Is American Catholicism becoming Protestant? Why are so many Hispanic Catholics leaving the Church? Is the global Catholic community splitting into ideological camps? And what does it mean that, as Luke Larson puts it, Pope Leo XVI acts as a “referee” between rival teams?
The National Catholic Register journalist spoke after his lecture, offering an in-depth look at the state of the Church in the United States, the challenges facing the new pope, and the growing cultural shifts shaping global Catholicism.
“Being Catholic in a Protestant country creates a stronger Catholic identity”
Larson rejects the claim—often heard even among American Catholics—that Catholicism in the U.S. is becoming “Protestantized.”
“Faithful American Catholics are very intentionally Catholic—perhaps precisely because they live in a Protestant-majority country,” he says.
This explains the renewed interest in the rosary, the traditional Latin Mass, and the rise of Catholic media influencers. At the same time, he notes that American culture inevitably shapes American Catholicism. Praise-and-worship concerts, stadium evangelization, and media-savvy outreach are practices pioneered by Protestants but now widespread among U.S. Catholics.
The Hispanic paradox: more Catholics, fewer vocations
While the United States is becoming more Hispanic—and Hispanics are more likely than average to be Catholic—the picture is complicated.
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Many Latin Americans arrive already converted to Protestant evangelicalism.
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Others convert shortly after arriving in the U.S.
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In dioceses with large Hispanic populations, priestly vocations tend to be lower, according to Larson’s research.
He emphasizes that Hispanic Catholicism is deeply devotional and Christ-centered, but often less institutional or parish-based than European-rooted Catholic culture. Thus, immigration does not automatically translate into a revival of American Catholic practice.
The biggest challenge: decline in faith—but signs of a turnaround
Larson sees the long-term decline in religious practice as the Church’s most urgent challenge in the United States:
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fewer Mass-goers
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declining vocations
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rising religious “nones”
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institutional downsizing
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the long shadow of the abuse crisis
Yet he also notes a surprising shift:
Generation Z appears to be rediscovering religion.
Church attendance and belief in God are rising among young adults, and authentic Christianity has found new cultural traction on social media.
Still, painful closures lie ahead: “Many dioceses are realizing that the vast institutional structure built in the 20th century is no longer sustainable.”
Conservatives, progressives, traditionalists—three teams on the same field
Although Larson cautions against reducing the Church to factions, he acknowledges that many Catholics instinctively think in terms of “teams”:
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Conservatives – who insist the Church cannot contradict or change its teachings.
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Progressives – who believe certain teachings can develop further.
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Traditionalists – a louder and growing minority that sees the Second Vatican Council as a fundamental mistake.
The fault lines are predictable: same-sex marriage, contraception, women’s ordination, abortion, the Latin Mass.
Larson notes that among younger priests, the “liberal” category has essentially disappeared, shaped by the long influence of John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
Pope Leo XVI as referee
Why does Larson describe the new pope as a referee?
“Because he wants to de-escalate tensions, not inflame them. He isn’t choosing sides—he’s keeping order on the field.”
According to Larson, this conclave was likely the last in which progressive cardinals held significant sway. Future generations of clergy will be more doctrinally conservative.
Leo XVI’s challenge is to:
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lower the temperature in Church debates,
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allow organic post–Vatican II development,
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protect unity without diluting doctrine.
A return to Augustine’s influence?
Larson expects the pope’s Augustinian background to influence his teaching style. More existential, less formulaic; more rooted in lived experience than in scholastic precision.
Augustine’s personal conversion—from worldly intellectual to saint—is, Larson suggests, an especially powerful model for a secularizing age.
Hollywood and the Vatican: a new era of religious cinema?
Recent high-profile visits from Hollywood figures, combined with the pope’s newly publicized list of favorite films, raise the possibility of renewed Catholic engagement with the film world.
Larson notes:
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The Church lost cultural influence in the 20th century.
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Christian films are often “well intentioned but cringe.”
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Yet Catholic imagery remains uniquely cinematic and powerful.
If Pope Leo encourages a renaissance of high-quality religious filmmaking, Larson believes it could both evangelize and culturally rejuvenate the Church:
“Hollywood has a love–hate fascination with Catholicism. If that becomes more love than hate, all the better.”
